What are the job and population growth estimates in Portland and Salem, Oregon in next 24 months and how to use them to set your rents for the next 24 months.
As single family and multifamily investors make rent increase decisions it behooves us to review the current population growth statistics for Salem and Portland, Oregon.
Over the next 24 months, Salem is projected to grow modestly, while Portland city proper is likely to remain flat to slightly down; though the broader Portland metro area is still growing.
Portland
Portland city proper appears to be shrinking slightly in the current estimates, with 2026 population at 630,447 and annual change at -0.73%. Over 24 months, that would roughly translate to a decline of about 1.5%, or around 9,000 people, if the same rate persists. (1)
At the metro level, the Portland area is still expanding: the metro population was 2,265,000 in 2025, up 0.98% from 2024. That points to continued regional growth even if the central city remains under pressure. (macrotrends (2)) This is a little confusing because, the Portland Metropolitan Area (officially the Portland–Vancouver–Hillsboro Metropolitan Statistical Area (SMSA)) is a bi-state region spanning northwest Oregon and southwest Washington. The Portland metro SMSA Multnomah, Clackamas, Washington, Yamhill, and Columbia counties in Oregon, and Clark and Skamania counties in Washington. Clark and Skamania County have benefited from emigration out of Multnomah County to escape burdensome taxes. (8)
Jobs Outlook
Portland’s job market currently faces an inflection point. The region recently experienced notable job losses and an unemployment rate of roughly 5.5%. While overall job numbers have contracted, sectors like healthcare, tech, and the outdoor industry continue to drive targeted hiring and long-term regional employment projections. Bureau of Labor Statistics (7)
Salem
Salem 2026-2027 market brief
Salem’s 2026 outlook is mixed but not weak: jobs are still growing in a few key sectors, while broader hiring looks uneven and cost pressure remains a real issue. Population appears to keep inching up, but the most defensible verified figure is a 2026 city projection rather than an official 2027 forecast. (6)
Jobs outlook
Salem’s metro economy is holding up better than much of Oregon, with one report saying Salem- area nonfarm employment was up 3,100 jobs year over year in April 2026, a 1.7% gain.
Growth is concentrated in transportation, warehousing and utilities, local government, and health care, while retail, leisure and hospitality, construction, and professional services were down. That makes 2026 more of a selective-growth year than a broad expansion year. (6)
For 2027, the safest expectation is continuation of that pattern: modest overall growth, but sector-by-sector divergence rather than a uniform rebound. Oregon’s broader forecast also points to slower statewide growth, which is likely to limit how fast Salem (Marion and Polk counties) can accelerate their growth . (7)
Salem looks more positive on a city basis. The 2026 population estimate is 182,902, and the annual growth rate is 0.62%. (1)
If that pace continues for two years, Salem will add roughly 2,200 to 2,300 residents, putting it near 185,100 by mid-2028. Another source gives a projected population of 182,925 and assumes a 1.1% annual rate, which would imply a somewhat faster 24-month gain if that higher rate proves closer to reality. (Oregon-demographics (3))
Summary Investors
For planning purposes, the cleanest takeaway is that Salem has the stronger near-term city-level growth signal, while Portland’s growth story is more metro-driven than city-driven. That usually matters for retail, multifamily, and small-bay industrial demand because city population trends affect absorption differently than metro totals. (Macrotrends (2))
Unfortunately, this means that single family and multifamily rents could remain flat for the next 24 months, potentially freezing rent increases for at least the next 12 months.
On the other hand, Multifamily construction in Portland and Salem is experiencing historic lows. New apartment permitting and construction starts across the region have plummeted by roughly 50% to 68% from their previous peaks. Across Oregon, multifamily permits hit their lowest levels in a decade, which means that competition from newly constructed units is slowing down for the next 24 months, and gives existing units time to catch up and potentially think about rent increase in 2027.
Summary
It’s a tricky time to be a residential landlord in Portland and Salem. Even though Landlords are allowed to increase rents by 9.5% (rent control mandate ORS 90.323) in 2026 its going to be difficult to increase rents for existing tenants and on tenant turns in the near future. Landlords are going to have to be very creative to keep tenants and manage their expenses in order to deal with the potential property tax and utility increases.
Sources:
1. https://worldpopulationreview.com/us-cities/oregon/portland
2. https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/cities/23102/portland/population
3. https://www.oregon-demographics.com/salem-demographics
4. https://www.pdx.edu/population-research/population-forecasts
5. PSU research for Marion County as a PDF https://drive.google.com/file/d/1-Ke72Hl54sgei7gTOmrlZUH8EfdbDDw3/view
6. https://salembusinessjournal.org/2026/06/03/salem-economy-oregon-forecast-businesses/
7. https://www.bls.gov/eag/eag.or_portland_msa.htm
We have over 35 years of property management and brokerage success to share with you. Contact us now to help you be more successful. Contact us at https://www.chockleyconsulting.com/contact-us
Clifford A. Hockley is Principal Broker at SVN | Bluestone, as well as the managing member of Cliff Hockley Real Estate Consulting, LLC. As a Certified Property Manager & Designated Managing Broker, Cliff has 42 years of experience in the brokerage and management of Real Estate companies. Bluestone and Hockley Real Estate Services managed condominium associations, multi-family, and commercial properties in the greater Portland area. He was focused on running the company and involved with investment property brokerage. He worked with financial institutions, governmental agencies, private investors, and not for profit organizations. He also has vast knowledge in budgeting, organizational management, and building structures. His previous experience includes over five years in accounting, production supervision for a manufacturing company, and work for state agencies in California.
Cliff grew Bluestone and Hockley Real Estate Services into a 100 employee company that managed over 2 billion dollars of real estate assets before he sold the company in 2021. He also supervised a sales team of over 15 real estate brokers for over 39 years. His monthly newsletter, QuickFacts has over 2,300 subscribers. He has been involved in numerous real estate transactions that include industrial, retail, office, and multifamily properties. Cliff has also written a book called “Successful Real Estate Investing; Invest Wisely, Avoid Costly Mistakes and Make Money” published by Morgan James Publishing in 2019.
Cliff has successfully coached real estate investors and CEOs located throughout the United States since 2015. He has acted as a sounding board to help untangle knotty issues that need an experienced outside opinion. He guides leaders who find it is “lonely at the top” and need an experienced hand to help set a strategic direction, sort out operational problems and want to talk through challenging business decisions.
He has served as an adjunct professor at Portland State University from 2028 – 2021, teaching classes in: Intro to Real Estate, Basic Real Estate Finance, Property Management as well as Real Estate Investment Fundamentals. He has instructed hundreds of students and believes that substantial preparation and active student engagement are crucial for learning and appreciating the field of real estate. Students appreciate his candor and real-world experience.
Among his many civic activities, Cliff served on the Board of Directors for the Portland Chapter of the Institute of Real Estate Management (IREM) and the Rental Housing Alliance of Oregon. In 2014 he was recognized by IREM as board member of the year, and in 2015 he earned an achievement award in brokerage from SVN International. In the years 2000 & 2003, he was recognized by IREM as Certified Property Manager of the Year.
